Small Business Confidence Rises as Uncertainty Lingers

The MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q2 2025 rose slightly to 65.2 this quarter, up from 62.3 in Q1. While this uptick reflects optimism around business health and cash flow, the survey also reveals persistent undercurrents of economic uncertainty.

For example, although concern over inflation dropped to 48% (from 58% last quarter), 70% of small businesses report that rising prices have significantly impacted their operations, and 60% have raised prices in the past year as a result of inflation. In addition, significantly more small businesses (40%, up from 33% last quarter) spent more time completing licensing, compliance or other government requirements.

“Small businesses are cautiously navigating a complex economic landscape,” said Tom Sullivan, Senior Vice President of Small Business Policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “While they are confident in their business operations—especially at the local level—when it comes to long term planning there is some hesitation as inflation concerns linger, and new trade policies create economic uncertainty.”

Findings Signal Persistent, Growing Uncertainty

Despite the tick up in the Index, other findings reflect ongoing economic anxieties.  

The survey, conducted from April 16 to May 5, shows 42% of small businesses expect to increase staff in the next year (similar to 41% saying the same last year in Q2), but expectations for revenue growth have softened. Only 65% anticipate revenue increases—down from 73% a year ago.

Other findings indicate small business leaders’ continued mixed emotions about including:

• Supply Chain Disruptions: Nearly half (47%) of small businesses have altered their supply chains in the past six months, and 30% report being unable to meet customer demand due to these disruptions.
• Growing Concern Around Workforce Issues: While concern for inflation dropped, more small business owners cite employee retention (16%, up from 11%) as top challenge this quarter. There is also a slight increase in the number saying supply chain issues are a top concern (17%, up from 13% in Q1).

Small business owner Colton McCurley, CEO of National Flooring & Supply Inc. in Sonora, California, says his clients remain loyal but are more cost conscious.

“We are managing these headwinds through tight cost controls, vendor renegotiations, and strategic investments in automation and distribution. These adjustments have improved profitability, even amid an unprecedented decline in demand,” says McCurley.

Struggles with Cost, Complexity of Employee Benefits

The Q2 2025 survey also asked small business owners about their employee benefit offerings.

Overall, while most small businesses recognize the importance of offering employee benefits, many continue to struggle with the complexity and cost of doing so. Some of this quarter’s top benefit findings include:

• Importance of benefits: 93% of small businesses say benefits are important for showing care for employees and their families, while around nine in 10 cite benefits as key to boosting morale, productivity, and retention.
• Most common Benefit: Health insurance remains the most commonly offered benefit, followed by various forms of paid leave.
• Barriers to Offering Benefits: Limited budgets (40%) and rising costs (37%) are the top barriers. Only 11% of small businesses report no barriers to offering benefits.

About the author

Thaddeus Swanek

Thaddeus is a senior writer and editor with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's strategic communications team.

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